Two things to start with.
First, I’m not as apocalyptic about the UK football team as a lot of (most?) people. Nobody other than the most optimistic fans had predicted that they would be any better than 4-5 right now and that’s what they are. They have three of the seven most winnable games of the season left on the schedule. Will they win them all? Who knows? Will they win at least two of them? I think the answer is still yes. Could they lose all three? Sure. Anything is possible. I just prefer to jump off bridges as I get to them, not before.
Second, I’m not a journalist. I have described myself a lot of ways over the course of the seven years I’ve hosted Community Trust Bank Sunday Morning Sports Talk on NewsRadio 630 WLAP. Most commonly that description has included “button pushing chimp,” but never journalist. It’s not that I don’t have a ton of respect for journalists, I absolutely do. I tried to journalist once. It was a complete nightmare and I hated it. I probably won’t journalist again soon. What I am — and the other thing I have regularly described myself as — is a fan who was fortunate enough to have an opportunity to do something I had always wanted to do, which is host a radio show.
The second point is the most important here. As a fan, I’ve never claimed to be truly impartial. I hope that I am fair, but I’ve never been impartial. I want Kentucky to do well. I want the people a Kentucky to do well.
The people part is what made this week’s show maybe one of the most difficult I’ve had to do.
It’s no secret that the Kentucky offense has struggled in its most recent three games. Especially after the last two weeks. Come show time that meant a lot of fan anger directed at the Wildcats’ offensive coordinator and offensive line coach. They happen to be the two coaches I’m least impartial about.
Regular show listeners may find it hard to believe I like much of anything, much less people, but it’s not true. I like a lot of people. Well, I like a handful of people. Shannon Dawson and John Schlarman are two of them. One of them I know only a little. One I’ve known what seems like forever.
I always find it funny when I get a chance to be on Insiders Roundtable on Big Blue Insider with Dick Gabriel. Not funny because the table is always rectangular, but funny because I don’t consider myself an insider. My work schedule keeps me from almost all media availabilities. I haven’t spoken directly to a player in forever and I rarely get a chance to talk to coaches, certainly not one on one.
Before this season started though, I got to interview Dawson for a story I wrote for the JMI preseason magazine. He was engaging, at times funny and gave straight answers to sometimes good and sometimes less good questions. He was eager to discuss his coaching philosophies. He said he was originally interested in science and only became interested in football as a career when his coach, Dana Holgorsen, showed him how to approach it as more of a mental game.
I was headed to work after the interview and had a logo shirt on. He asked me about the logo and after the interview and though his schedule was tight, we talked for another 10 minutes about Special Olympics. He talked about an eagerness to get involved in the community. I gave him my card and two days later I had a text from him. When the Special Olympics teams visited the UK football facility during the preseason, he was there asking questions, wanting to know about the program, the athletes and how Special Olympics works. I became a fan.
I first met Schlarman in probably 1990 he was 12-ish. His sister played basketball for Northern Kentucky University and I worked in the sports information office and called games on radio. The Schlarman family traveled to every road game. I had known his older brother (who played at NKU) and another sister (a student there) for longer. John and I would occasionally shoot baskets before the teams came out. I first saw him play when his Highlands team came to the Thoroughbred Bowl at Tates Creek his senior year. Schlarman and one of his Highlands teammates spent the game getting up off of Billy Jack Haskins (who they pummeled mercilessly that night) before all three signed to play at UK. In Schlarman’s senior year at UK, I was assigned his feature story for the game program. I was thrilled when he had the opportunity to come back to coach in Lexington, close to his family. He is a terrific guy. I am an unabashed fan.
So as the calls rolled in Sunday, I hated the fact that we were having to discuss guys I know either a little or a lot, and who I like a great deal. It was a first for me.
The next three games are critical for the Wildcats and their coaches. Win two, go to a bowl, a lot of the struggles of the last three weeks will be forgotten. Short of that, and maybe even if they succeed in that, there may be changes to the Kentucky coaching staff after the season. As a fan of the Wildcats I support anything that makes the program better. As a fan of Dawson and Schlarman, I hope neither are involved in those changes. I hope both have long, successful careers in Lexington.
Yesterday, the FBI — aided by Swiss officials — arrested seven FIFA officials as part of a massive corruption probe, presumably because they couldn’t find any of the other FIFA officials to arrest with them. Overnight, primary World Cup sponsors Visa and Coca-Cola hysterically expressed their “disappointment” to find that the devil they were in bed with operated in manner so corrupt that it would make Congress blush.
Well, through crack reporting, we here at the Meisterblog have unearthed the rejected original draft of their statement.
After waking from a 25-year nap, we at Visa and Coca-Cola were shocked and dismayed to find that FIFA’s business practices have invited this kind of scrutiny. In our decades-long relationship with FIFA and the Wold Cup, we have never any moment that would have given us cause for alarm (snicker).
Now that all of our customers who only follow soccer every four years and had no idea what a FIFA was the day before yesterday are aware of what soccer reporters have been telling people for years, we DEMAND (no seriously) that FIFA get its opulent palace in order and clean up its operation…or at least not be so obvious about things.
If FIFA can’t go back to being corrupt in a way that doesn’t negatively affect us, we will be forced to withdraw our support to one of the biggest sports event’s on the face of the earth that has given us untold exposure and helped our bottom line for years (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, we almost said that with a straight face).
No, seriously, we mean it.
The Meisterblog will stay on top of this breaking story. Or we will get bored and forget to post anything else about it.
The Norse got my attention again over the weekend when news started to leak that NKU had been accepted into the Horizon League and will jump ship from their original Division 1 home the Atlantic Sun Conference beginning with the 2015-16 school year. That news was confirmed on Monday.
Look, as much as I loved my nostalgic idea of the Great Lakes Valley Conference and the Division 2 powerhouse era in Highland Heights, NKU was going to make the jump to Division 1 someday. The GLVC – once the greatest Division 2 league in America and one of the most entertaining leagues of any level you’d ever want to see – already wasn’t the same. Some of the teams the Norse had built great rivalries with were gone, most notable Kentucky Wesleyan. It had also become a far flung travel nightmare, in effect a Midwestern Atlantic Sun Conference. The school was too big (and still growing) to be comfortable at the Division 2 level. It competed for attention and status in a region loaded with Division 1 schools. And in the Bank of Kentucky Center, it had an arena much too ambitious to hold a Division 2 team. Things change.And when the Norse needed a landing pad to make the jump to Division 1 the A-Sun provided one. For that, I guess I am thankful. But the A-Sun was never going to be a long-term home for the Norse. The league was a logistical nightmare with teams reaching from Northern Kentucky to somewhere near Cuba. Hell, there may BE one in Cuba for all I know. And that’s the other problem. I tried (I REALLY DID!) to get excited about A-Sun games. I fired up my kids’ X-Box and watched medium quality broadcasts on the ESPN app, and I STILL can’t name all the teams in the league (I don’t think). Other than Florida Gulf Coast’s Sweet 16 run a few years ago, there just isn’t anything to excite you there. And with the travel distance for NKU to almost every other school, no rivalry was ever really going to emerge.
There were only ever two leagues that made sense for the Norse – the Ohio Valley and the Horizon. The OVC rejected NKU before the A-Sun made itself available. And even though the OVC had three Kentucky schools and the opportunity for ready-made rivalries, the league was never really a perfect fit for the Norse. For one they have football, and basketball will always be a second-class citizen in a football league (and I would STILL be shocked if NKU ever went the football route). I grew up in the Northern Kentucky and the region always has identified to the north as opposed to the south and always will. For better or for worse, that’s the way it is.
So the Horizon always looked like the fit the Norse should covet. Thanks to now departed Butler the league has some recent basketball cache – a must for a school with basketball aspirations. And even without the Bulldogs, the Horizon sports five schools with Sweet Sixteen appearances (Cleveland State, Detroit, Green Bay, Milwaukee and Valparaiso). It also provides some unexpectedly fertile ground not to start but to RENEW rivalries.
Back when they were all Division 2 schools, NKU had many spirited contests with Wright State and Oakland. The Norse own a winning record against Oakland, and I distinctly remember thinking “If they can do it why can’t Northern?” when the Grizzlies (formerly the Pioneers – and who changes their name from Pioneers? Did Pioneers offend somebody?) jumped to D1.Wright State owned NKU for most of their history together with the Raiders – whose campus is so close to greater Cincinnati (which includes the NKU area) that a friend of mine commuted from Cincinnati to med school there – rolling up a 19-7 record against the Norse. For most of that time, Wright State was a Division 2 power and NKU was an aspirant, but the Norse won two of the last three games against the Raiders, including a 64-52 win in Regents hall in 1987, the season before the Raiders left Division 2. In that game Wright State brought a rowdy enough student section that two of their fans jumped out of the stands onto the NKU mascot. I remember that vividly, as I was that mascot (I pushed them off with my Norseman – then the NKU mascot – shield and got a thumbs up from then-NKU President Leon Booth, who was awesome).
So now the Norse have a new coach, a new transfer from Alabama (Jeff Garrett) and my attention again. I will always be disappointed that Bezold didn’t get the opportunity to coach without the strangling limitations that the NCAA transition period puts on a program, but I was also never going to be able to desert a University that meant so much to me and played such an important role in my life. Plus, I’m a Bengals fan, so I am predisposed to sticking with teams that frustrate me.
Now all I need to know is do Horizon League games play on my Xbox?
OK, it’s crunch time again. You have mere hours to fill out a bracket and you have no idea what to do or who to choose. Well, like government, I’m here to help. When I started this blog, most people (and by most people I largely mean me) thought it wouldn’t last a year. And to be fair, it really didn’t. This is my fourth post in the last two years. But this is now year four of the Meisterblog performing this vital community service for you, the loyal reader. And by “you,” I mean “hi mom.”
There are a million ways to pick a bracket. You can pick by favorite color or by cute coaches or by the preferred food of a state or region (I have a sneaking suspicion that that one is in the group somewhere). Or, if you have access and are super smart, you can use IBM’s Watson to crunch numbers and select your bracket (honestly, if you have the access and are super smart, I recommend it).
Well, I don’t have access to Watson and I’m not super smart. And while you may be super smart, you probably don’t have Watson access either. So I have focused in this space on methods that are replicable by the common man. Think of it as the bracket selection equivalent making hot dogs instead of beef Wellington.
We’ll start, as always with the ones that make sense.
We are deeply disappointed to pass along news of the demise of the Wall Street Journal Blindfold Brackets. They were easily the most fun as they gave you the opportunity to look at a graphic representation of a team’s abilities and select between teams named “Wombats” and “Screwdrivers.” I’m sad to see them go. And it leaves us one method short this year. We’re left with the two most common analytics and the most boring bracket on earth.
Higher Seeds – 2nd last year
This is as easy as it gets and is perfect for the office bracket player who knows nothing about college basketball and doesn’t want to. In that respect, it will also work for Colin Cowherd. You simply pick the team with the lower number next to its name in the margin. It gets a little tricky in the Final Four, but those teams ARE seeded. So if you haven’t followed along, this year that order is Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke, so you end up with a Kentucky-Villanova final and Kentucky winning it all.
Pros: You always select the allegedly better team. People will only make fun of you for a lack of originality and not for picking some of the teams that will come up later in this post. Kentucky wins.
Cons: So, so, so very boring.
RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) – 5th last year
This is probably the oldest and most widely used of the now multiple basketball analytics out there. The true analytics junkies pretty much summarily dismiss it. But you know who doesn’t dismiss it? The NCAA Selection Committee, that’s who. Most of the bracket seeds mirror the RPI this year, although there are a few oddities. For example Duke (RPI 6) is a 1-seed when it should be a 2, while Kansas (a laughable RP 3) is a 2-seed and should be a 1. Also, Wichita (RPI 17) – who the committee sort of shafted when they entered the Tournament undefeated a year ago only to draw Kentucky in the second round — is horribly underseeded as a 7 (should be a 4 or 5). There are others, maybe nobody as bad off as Buffalo (RPI 28) who is seeded 12 when they should be a 7. In fact there is only a four-place spread between Buffalo and the 5-seed they face, West Virginia. It’s one of the reasons so many people will pick Buffalo over WVU in the first round.
This year, choosing the team with the higher RPI predicts only one upset in the first round (Davidson over Iowa) and only two more (Northern Iowa over Louisville and Utah over Georgetown) in the rest of the Tournament.
Pros: You have a semi-impartial metric helping you pick the better team in each game. Kentucky wins again.
Cons: Barely any upsets, so not a lot to get really excited about.
The Kenpom rankings are named after their founder Ken Pomeroy and are the darling of the analytics crowd. They have a lot of columns with really confusing headers and I’m really bad at math, so I don’t understand anything about them. But I can count from 1 to about 112, so I can place them in this bracket. Kenpom ALSO has Wichita (Kenpom 13) as a terrible seed (7, should be 3 or 4). Kenpom REALLY loves Texas, defying other rankings and anybody who has had the experience of watching Texas play. The Longhorns are ranked 20 by Kenpom, which should make them a 5 seed, but the Committee has them in as an 11 (a LOT of people didn’t think Texas should be in the field at all). Maryland (Kenpom 33) is seeded too high at 4 according to Kenpom and should be an 8 or 9.
Like RPI, Kenpom only indicated one upset in the first round, but it’s not Davidson over Iowa. Kenpom has Ohio State (21) over VCU (27). It also has three No. 2 seeds reaching the Final Four, with Kentucky as the only 1-seed to make it to Indianapolis. It picks two other upsets in the Midwest region – West Virginia over Maryland and Notre Dame over Kansas.
Pros: You’re again picking good teams on every line. You have a few more upsets to brag about.
Cons: Still kind of boring.
And that does it for analytics. Well, you could do a BPI bracket, or you could join us and just think it’s cute that ESPN keeps pushing that one. (Note: I apparently did a BPI bracket last year. It outperformed RPI and Kenpom). So that brings us to the desperate and silly.
Coin Toss – 8th last year
Likely the least effective way to pick a bracket. Your results will be different from mine, so I won’t belabor them, but I can give you the method I used. I went division by division on each side of the bracket, so that I finished the Midwest and the West and then moved on to the East and South. Heads was always the top team in the bracket (not always the higher seed). Again this year I was too lazy to actually flip a coin, so I used an iPhone app. It turns out this is a deeply flawed approach, as to get a 1-seed into the Final four, you have to flip heads on their turn four straight times. It’s a coin so there’s a 50-50 shot of tossing heads. So over four rounds that a…a…well, it’s not likely.
Pros: Mindless. Fast.
Cons: Hard for a 1-seed to reach Final Four. Wildly inaccurate historically.
Mascots – 7th last year
Like favorite colors, there are a lot of ways to do this one. You can pick your favorite animal, or the cutest animal or whatever. I imagine every game as a mascot battle with the stronger one winning. I give extra consideration to a mascot’s ability to use a weapon or magic or mystical powers. I have generally given a lot of credit to natural disasters; however, the thought occurred to me that animals and people survive those all the time. Also, there are no natural disasters in the field this year. So you end up with an equation like this: Prince of Darkness>Fierce Animal>Fierce Human>Regular Human>Regular Animal. Again, keep in mind that weapon wielding humans get bonus points. That’s how the Hampton Pirates, knock off the Kentucky Wildcats as well as everyone else and reach the Final Four, because Pirates are terrifying (if there were ever a Clown mascot, they would win going away).
A few thoughts on how this year’s bracket shaped up:
The Louisville Cardinals vs. UC Irvine Anteaters matchup has to be the matchup between the two least intimidating mascots.
- Both the Boise State Broncos and the Dayton Flyers would knock off the Providence Friars, so they move on regardless.
- Albany are the Great Danes, which are huge animals; however, Sooners were pioneer settlers and I don’t think they’d have any trouble with Scooby Doo.
- Utah Utes vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks is maybe the toughest human matchup since I’ve been doing these.
- Eastern Washington beats Georgetown because nobody knows what a Hoya is.
- UAB is a damn dragon. That’s tough to beat.
In the end though, Duke (not surprisingly) is repped by the Prince of Darkness, so the Blue Devils knock off the Dragons in the Elite 8 and roll to a title.
Homer Bracket – 2014 Champion
It’s hard to believe this was the best performer last year, because it’s 100% based on irrational forces – fandom, personal friendships and blind hatred. Again, your bracket may be different, but here’s how mine works:
Favored Teams (in order):
Kentucky – favorite team
- Xavier – second favorite team in the field
- Indiana – friend and mentor JD Campbell is their SID. I owe more to him than I owe to probably any human on the planet other than my parents.
- St. John’s – Assistant Coach Jim Whitesell was the Head Coach at Lewis University when I was the SID there and he was great to me.
- Ohio State – residual from my football fandom
- Notre Dame – also residual from my football fandom
- UCLA – they treated us great when we practiced there on a trip to the west coast with Lewis
- Catholic schools – because I’m Catholic
Unfavored Teams (in order):
- Louisville – Kentucky’s most hated rival
- Duke – the 1992 Elite 8 game and Christian Laettner
- Cincinnati – Hated rival of Xavier and held the ball all game for a 24-11 final against Kentucky in 1983
- Arkansas – Budding most hated SEC rival of Kentucky
- Arizona – Beat Kentucky in the 1997 NCAA Championship Game, robbing Kentucky of possibly three consecutive national championships. Also, Miles Simon is the western Christian Laettner
- West Virginia – Beat Kentucky in 2010 Elite 8, denying John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson a Final Four trip.
- North Carolina – Beat Kentucky in 1995 Elite 8 and just because
- Michigan State – Beat Kentucky in 2005 Elite 8
- Virginia – Stole Ralph Sampson from Kentucky
- Georgetown – Beat Kentucky in the 1984 Final Four
Pros: You end up with all kinds of crazy upsets, like Buffalo over Maryland, Harvard over North Carolina, Texas Southern (GO MIKE DAVIS!) over Arizona, Eastern Washington over Georgetown. You NEVER end up cheering against a team you like.
Cons: You better like a lot of really good teams or you’re out on Day 1.
My Picks – 2nd last year
You could always just steal my picks, although I don’t recommend it. I don’t recall ever having won money in a pool of any kind. Like anybody who does this sort of thing I’ve picked upsets here and there (and maybe too many) – Wichita St. over Kansas, Arkansas over North Carolina, Arizona over Wisconsin on one side of the bracket, and Northern Iowa over Louisville, Virginia over Villanova (only an upset because Villanova was ridiculously given a 1-seed) and Iowa State over Gonzaga on the other.
Pros: If you pick a lot of winning teams, you get a strong sense of accomplishment.
Cons: If you don’t know anything about college basketball, you may not do well. Looking at you again, Colin Cowherd.
If you’d like follow along or pick a bracket of your own to see how you match up, you can join this ESPN Tournament Challenge Group.
Now, get your picks in on time and enjoy the best month of the year. Good Luck, and GO CATS!
I’m old. I like the familiar, the comfortable, that which I already know. That’s why I loved the Great Lakes Valley Conference and I loved that my college – Northern Kentucky University – played in it. It was, without question, the best overall Division 2 men’s college basketball conference in the country. It regularly filled half the bracket or more for the Great Lakes Regional. As often as not, it seemed, a GLVC team was playing for the Division 2 National Championship. Twice Northern Kentucky University was that team. That both were losses hardly matters now, other than the fact that Shannon Minor’s three-point attempt as time expired in the 1997 championship will haunt me forever. I sat right on the line from him to the basket, and from the time it left his hand, it looked like it was going in and me and my Norseman helmet (Oh, did I mention that I was once the NKU mascot [1986-88]? And yes I still have the helmet. Never mind how or why) were about to storm the court. Except it didn’t go in, and I just sat there stunned.
Regardless, I loved the GLVC and I love Northern Kentucky University and, again, I Iike the familiar. So it was that more than a little bit of nervousness mixed with my excitement when NKU declared its intention to move to Division 1 athletics. I’ve been in or around college athletics since…well, since I was the Norseman. I knew the incredible challenge ahead of my school – and the few people I knew from my days as a student who were still there. And I knew the possibilities.
Well, those possibilities became realities today when Dave Bezold was relieved of his duties as NKU’s (now just the Norse) head basketball coach. In the interest of not so shocking full disclosure. I am an unabashed Bezold fan. He was an assistant as far back as my days at the university (which finally came to a close in 1991), and he was on the bench for both of those National Championship games as an assistant to Ken Shields. When Shields retired, Bezold was elevated to the head coach position. He inherited a tradition not only of winning at NKU, but a tradition of the head basketball coach being one of the best men on campus. For eight years, he carried on both traditions spectacularly. Bezold compiled a 161-79 record in eight seasons in the GLVC. He won or shared three division titles and finished second two other times.
He also continued being a tremendous representative for the University. Still in the Division 2 days, Bezold hired Jillian Daugherty, an NKU student with Down syndrome, as a student manager for the team (Jillian’s dad, outstanding Cincinnati Enquirer sports columnist Paul Daugherty has a book coming out about Jillian, you should probably read it). This year he and his team began playing wheelchair basketball with a team in Cincinnati.
If you watched the video, that’s Bez in the yellow shirt.
The winning over the three years since NKU made the jump to Division 1 hasn’t come as easily for Bezold and the Norse. Making the move to college athletics’ highest level is hard, and intentionally so. It is a gateway intended to ensure that only schools that are fully committed to the responsibilities of making the move even try. Among the difficulties of the jump are four-year bans on playing for a league championship or in the NCAA Tournament. That means that for a few years, Bezold and his staff were recruiting to a promise of…nothing. No matter how good you got how fast, there was nowhere to go once the regular season ended. There would be no confetti cannon, no trophy presentation. Few high school kids with the ability to play Division 1 sports are interested.
Regardless Bezold finished .500 in the Atlantic Sun Conference in his first year. The league includes a Florida Gulf Coast team that beat Georgetown in the NCAA Tournament and reached the Sweet 16 that season (NKU led them by five with 10 minutes to play in Highland Heights that first season). He dipped to 5-13 in the league the next year.
This season the A-Sun allowed NKU to compete for league titles two years ahead of schedule. The announcement came in July, long after recruiting for this past season had come to a close. The advantage would come for the coming season. The NKU coaches would finally have something to give kids to play for when they came to NKU.
Bezold got the Norse back to .500 in the league this season and they hosted an A-Sun Tournament game (in Regents Hall, the old, comfortable Division 2-level gym. The Norse’s usual home had already been leased to the high school regional tournament). The Norse lost that Tournament game. It would be Bezold’s last game in a 25-year tenure in Highland Heights. He was fired today, with one year left before NKU’s transitional period ended.
It’s a move that feels cynical, shallow, uncomfortable. Maybe it’s not the case, but the change feels like the plan all along was to leave Bezold as a placeholder, just good enough to do the heavy lifting on the way to Division 1, but not good enough to give him a real shot to compete. Now with NCAA Tournament eligibility looming it’s time get a “bigger name” or an “up and comer.”
I have always been a proud NKU alumnus. I tell everybody where I went to school. I had a tremendous experience there and I will always value it. Again, I was the Norseman for two years.
Not long ago, a scandal erupted in the NKU athletics department when then-AD Scott Eaton was charged with (and eventually convicted of) embezzling more than $300,000, mostly in Kroger gift cards no less. I wasn’t embarrassed when that story broke. One idiot did something bad. That happens. It’s a one-guy issue, not a University issue.
Today I’m a little embarrassed. This is a classless move and sends a guy who gave 25 years to the University packing. It’s exactly the kind of thing – the kind of change – I feared when the Division 1 announcement was made.
The Norse may well go on to great things from here. They certainly have the potential. It’s a good school with a beautiful basketball facility, although they will desperately need a different league if they want to draw better at the 10,000-seat Bank of Kentucky Center. Few in Northern Kentucky have heard of most of the teams in the Atlantic Sun outside of Florida Gulf Coast. Fewer care to see them play. But whatever happens from here, it won’t feel familiar, and it definitely won’t feel comfortable.
They say it takes a big man to admit when he’s wrong, and while I’m not quite as big as I used to be, I am still well within the apology weight range. As the University of Kentucky gets ready to tip-off against the Wisconsin Badgers in the Wildcats’ third Final Four in four years, I can’t help but look back at everything I’ve written and said about this team over the course of this past season. And I owe SOMEBODY an apology.
Like so many others, I had my fair share of questions about this team. At times I questioned their heart. I questioned their effort. I questioned whether or not an annual rollover roster filled with freshmen was capable of winning at the level that is expected at Kentucky (and to be fair at all elite level programs, no matter what Michael Wilbon says. You think Duke fans are happy about how their season ended?). The thing is, I don’t really have to apologize for any of that. At times, with the way this crop of Cats played all of those questions were fair enough.
However, I do need to apologize to Aaron Harrison. After the Wildcats lost to a bad South Carolina Team in Columbia a little over a month ago, Aaron famously said the following:
“Because we know what we can do. We know, we talk about it. Even after the game, we just, we know what we can do and we know we’re going to make a run to have a big, great story for everyone to talk about.”
You can watch it here (courtesy of Kentucky Wildcats TV):
The next morning on Community Trust Bank Sunday Morning Sports Talk (9 am-Noon on NewsRadio 630 WLAP), well … let’s just say I was incredulous. And I’m reasonably certain that I used stronger words than that on the show. I was wrong (Mercifully, I’m wrong a fair amount. I get used to it.).
Whatever happens tonight (and hopefully on Monday), the Wildcats passed the “great story” threshold a long time ago. Maybe their run in the SEC Tournament wasn’t enough, but certainly them knocking out top seed and previously undefeated Wichita State at least made it a great short story. For this Cats squad to go on from there to knock off Louisville and Michigan to reach this year’s Final Four may be the War and Peace of great sports stories, made all the more amazing because it was Aaron — so full of confidence and hope that ugly afternoon in March — who hit the ridiculous three-pointer to give Kentucky the win over the Wolverines (speaking of — hey, CBS/TNT/TBS/TruTV, how about you replace one of the eleventy billion annual replays of the Laettner shot with that one in future Tournament promos, huh?).
I’ve long said that regardless of how good you think your team is, the Elite Eight is as far as you can reasonably EXPECT a team to go int he NCAA Tournament. At that point you’re almost always playing a really good basketball team and the game should be considered just about a push. A Final Four trip — ANY Final Four trip — is gravy time. That’s especially the case for this Kentucky team.
The old “we overcame so much” is one of the most worn out story lines in all of sports. It is used equally when the No. 1 team in the country makes the Final Four and when an unheralded mid-major makes the trip. So I won’t use it here. Instead of overcoming obstacles, hardship or whatever you want to call it, this team grew. Game by game, week by week, these young Cats learned a little bit more of what they needed to know to be great. Aaron Harrison saw it a month ago — even if he was the only one — and he wasn’t afraid to say so. I’m sorry I laughed when he did.
Bracket Madness Update
Congratulations to jpayne5150, Kelly192510 and GREG0667, the most likely winners of the ESPN Bracket Challenge group I set up to track the progress of the brackets in my bracket selection post. Jpayne will win if Florida wins the title over Connecticut in the championship game. Kelly192510 will win if Kentucky beats Florida in the Final. GREG0667 will win if Florida wins the title pretty much regardless of who they play. All of that is unless I have done the math wrong, which is a very strong possibility.
Among the brackets I put together, not surprisingly just picking the favorite is in the lead (it won going away last year). SHOCKINGLY, however, my actual picks are second among the group (it fared…poorly…last year). Sadly both brackets have Florida winning the title (which TO BE CLEAR I do NOT want to happen). Pretty much all other options have been complete failures, although there is still hope for my homer pick bracket, because…well…GO CATS!!!!!
Sequels don’t always go well. Some are Godfather 2 and some are Major League 2 (which NEVER happened and will never be spoken of here again), so I prefer to refer to this as a gimmick as opposed to a sequel. Gimmicks last longer. Hell, Bill Engval has been giving out signs since I was in college (No, seriously, he has. I saw him live at the Funny Bone in an out-of-the-way strip mall in Montgomery, Ohio, about 25 years before the Blue Collar Comedy Tour. Same bit, except funnier because I’d never heard it before. Honestly, it was hysterical).
Choose poorly and somebody at your office may hand you a sign.
This can be a very stressful time of year. With all the bracket challenges out there — including one where you can win $1 BILLION — it can be overwhelming trying to fill yours out. Sure there’s the billion to be worried about, but since you have about the same chance of winning that as you have of winning the lottery while being mauled by a bear and struck by lightning at the same time, the bigger concern is the scorn of your friends, family and coworkers should your brackets fail. You only have a handful of hours left to get your brackets in and you’re feeling the pressure. We (meaning me) at meisterblogger are here to help you once again.
Keep in mind, there are a TON of ways to fill out a bracket. We are going to stick to some that have some basic bracketing principles, ranging from nearly science to completely absurd. This leaves out things like favorite colors, because while mine is blue — or maybe green — yours could be red or orange, or if you are a woman, a shade of a color I have never heard of, like ecru or topaz or something.
We’ll start with five ways that approximate something like science:
The Wall Street Journal Blindfold Bracket
Unveiled a couple of years ago, the Wall Street Journal Blindfold Bracket has fast become one of my favorite parts of the Tournament season. Wall Street Journal staff assigns each team in the field a rating in each of six categories (offense, defense, rebounding, experience, 3-point shooting and hot streak) and without giving you team names, matches the teams up. You pick based on the rankings, theoretically giving you an unbiased look.
The first year we used this one, they gave all the teams awesome animal names, like wombats. Last year it was tools and utensils. This year, it was jobs — and not particularly glamorous ones. Only Cosmonaut and game show host stood out. Sadly, neither came out on top in my run.
When I ran through the group, Florida (which I think was the Piano Tuners if you want to cheat) won it all, but maybe a little surprisingly in a National Championship Game against Wichita State. Even in the early rounds there weren’t a ton of upsets, although I did end up with all four 12 seeds winning. The biggest surprise was New Mexico (7) making the Elite 8 and to a lesser extent Creighton (3) beating Arizona to make the Final Four.
Pros: Still fun and fair.
Cons: They appear to be running out of cool names for teams. The Blindfold Bracket did NOT fare well last year, finishing sixth out of eight efforts, including finishing behind flipping a coin.
Each of the past two years, we’ve given you the rundown of two major computer rankings. This year in addition to Kenpom and RPI we’re adding the made-for-ESPN BPI. We add the BPI primarily because we hope it will fail so we can mock ESPN for making up its own system and ramming it down our throats, much like they did with the QPR quarterback rating. Again, I have no idea what any of these measures other than strength of schedule, but Kenpom has the most complicated sounding category names. On to our three “mathy” systems.
Use the RPI Rankings
These are the rankings most used by the actual NCAA selection committee. They are considered gospel by some and derided by others, and while they don’t EXACTLY mirror the bracket seeds, they come pretty close. So you rarely end up with a true upset. Even with the RPI’s inclusion in the selection process, there are some teams that RPI thinks are mis-seeded. Three of them are piled on top of each other in the Midwest bracket. RPI has Kentucky underseeded at 8. Their RPI of 18 would have them as a 5. Kentucky’s first-round opponent Kansas State is one of the more overseeded teams in the tournament at 9 while their RPI of 50 would have them as a 12 (barely in the field). Then there is St. Louis, whose RPI of 31 would indicate an 8 seed instead of their 5. Maybe the committee just confused Kentucky and St. Louis. The biggest shock of the Midwest bracket is that according to RPI, Louisville — whose 4 seed was universally derided — is actually seeded a little BETTER than their RPI of 19 would indicate (5).
Other underseeded teams include New Mexico (RPI-12) which should be a 3 as opposed to a 7, North Dakota State (33) which would be a 9 as opposed to a 12, and a little surprisingly Gonzaga, whose 20 RPI ranking would have them as a 5 as opposed to an 8. The most overseeded team in the Tournament other than K-State is 1-seed Virginia who looks more like a 3 with an RPI of 9.
When you play the brackets out though, you get ZERO first-round upsets and only VCU gets to the Sweet 16 among teams seeded below 4. Duke is the only 3 seed that makes the Elite 8. And This year you end up with three No. 1 seeds — Florida, Arizona and Wichita State — and second seeded Villanova in the Final Four with Florida beating Arizona for the title.
Pros: Easy system to follow.
Cons: Not many upsets. Florida wins. Middle of the pack finisher the last two years.
Use the Kenpom Rankings
Kenpom is apparently the more advanced of the two older computer models and it’s touted by the same guys who love Sabermetrics or whatever the newest thing is in baseball (think Moneyball on hardwood). Since it has nothing to do with the NCAA selection criteria, you end up with many more teams “out of seed” than you do with the RPI. The biggest difference is that Kenpom LOVES the Louisville Cardinals. According to Kenpom they should have been a top seed with their No. 2 ranking. Kenpom also has Kentucky, Oklahoma State and Gonzaga underseeded along with Tennessee (play-in game) and VCU (No. 13 Kenpom). It also has far more teams overseeded, including Oklahoma and St. Louis as well as Texas, Michigan and Iowa State. Kenpom would have No. 3 seed Iowa State as a 6. Tennessee by contrast (Kenpom 13) would be a 4.
Kenpom allows for a few more upsets. VCU gets all the way to the Elite 8. Regardless of the winner of the Tennessee/Iowa play-in, that slot gets to the second round. However, you are down to the top seeds again by the Sweet 16, with VCU the only seed lower than 4 to get through the first weekend.
Kenpom does give you some excitement in the Tournament’s second weekend with Creighton beating Wisconsin, Duke beating Michigan and Louisville making the Final Four. And it diverges from the RPI with Arizona claiming the title.
Pros: Slightly more upset friendly. Was the second most effective bracket method a year ago.
Cons: Still not a lot of excitement.
Use the BPI
BPI or Basketball Power Index is ESPN’s in-house ranking system. Why they needed a new system, we’ll never know. Maybe they had run out of things for Skip Bayless to be wrong about and had to scramble. BPI points to a number of the same seeding issues as Kenpom — Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Louisville, St. Louis, but is the one rating that has New Mexico right where they are as 7 seed.
Like the other two sciency rankings, there isn’t much to work with upset-wise. The winner of the Iowa/Tennessee play-in beats UMass and 9 seed Oklahoma beats Gonzaga, but that is it. Duke is the only 3 seed to make the Elite 8 and all four 1 seeds reach the Final Four. Arizona again knocks off Florida in the title game.
Pros: You have math to back up your picks.
Cons: Like the other rating-based methods, not much excitement.
Pick the Higher Seeds
There’s no mystery here. You trust the Selection Committee — which many people do not — and pick the team they say is best. Florida wins over Arizona in the Championship Game thanks to the Selection Committee’s S-Curve.
Pros: Runaway winner last year, receiving 93% of possible points int he ESPN bracket challenge.
Cons: No fun at all and you feel dirty just doing it. Florida wins.
And that does it for ways that make any rational sense at all, which takes us to the ridiculous — some variation of which will undoubtedly win your office pool.
Toss a Coin
Two years ago, we sat and tossed an ACTUAL coin, but that stuff is for suckers. Last year we went to a virtual iCoin. It’s way easier on the table and it doesn’t wake up your family. Just like last year heads gave the game to the top team in the bracket and tails to the lower team.
This year our coin picked only 17 of the 32 higher seeded teams to win their games in the first round and picked only 25 higher seeded teams overall. In a world in which a No. 1 seed has NEVER lost to a 16 seed, the coin knocked off three of the four 1 seeds in the first round leaving only Arizona. The blood-letting continued through the rest of the bracket, giving me a Final Four of Stephen F. Austin (It’s a real school in Texas. Look it up.), George Washington, BYU and NC State, with George Washington knocking off NC State for the title.
Pros: No thought needed at all. The coin DID predict the two 15 over 2 wins in 2012. It was the best of the non-scientific brackets last year. Your results may vary.
Cons: It’s absurd and the teams most likely to win were already out before the games really got started on my sheet.
Choose by Mascot
This is probably my favorite option. There are a number of ways to do this, for example, you may own a bulldog, so you want Bulldogs to win. Also, while not exactly mascot oriented, when my younger son filled out his first ever bracket (at about 7 years old) he picked American (back in the field this year) to win it all, explaining “after all, we ARE all Americans.”
We aren’t doing either of those things. We go with “which mascot would win in a fight,” and we don’t mean a fight between their costumed characters (although we ALWAYS encourage those). We mean if their real world counterparts squared off. There are a few easy principles. Fierce warriors beat other humans and most animals. Wild animals fare pretty well. Pets fare less well than wild animals. Mythical/Supernatural creatures are evaluated on an individual basis and if they seem terrifying they win; Devils do well as a result. Natural disasters are unstoppable. In case of a mascot tie, higher seed wins.
The South bracket was no problem, as the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa powered through with ease, knocking off the New Mexico Lobos (most terrifying animal left after the Gators) in the Elite 8.
The East was close to as simple. The Iowa State Cyclones blew into the Final Four with a win over the Michigan State Spartans in the Elite 8. The most difficult match-up was in the first round between the Villanova Wildcats and the Milwaukee Panthers. In this case size does matter and the bigger cat wins.
The Midwest produces chaos. Even with Cal Poly (Mustangs) winning the play-in game over Texas Southern (Tigers), Cal Poly has enough to get past Shockers and Wildcats to make the Sweet 16. With North Carolina State winning their First Four game, though, the Mustangs get taken down by the Wolfpack. The Duke Blue Devils overcome the Wolfpack to get to the Final Four.
The West has the most fun matchups. In the first round alone a pair of Wildcats (Arizona and Weber State) face off (Arizona advances on seed). The Oklahoma Sooners take their toll on the North Dakota State Bison just like in settler days. We are giving the nod to the American Eagle over the Wisconsin Badger, mostly because of the flying thing. And we don’t care how Ragin’ a Cajun is, have you ever been dive bombed by a Bluejay? Those things are vicious. Bluejays romp. In the second round the fierce warrior Aztecs from San Diego State wipe out the Oklahoma Sooners and the Eagle quits soaring when the BYU Panthers get a hold of him. In the end Baylor comes out of the region to face Duke in the Final Four.
In that final weekend, the two disasters face off in one semifinal with Tulsa knocking out Iowa State. Hurricanes are bigger and I don’t know what Golden Hurricane is, but I don’t want to find out. It’s more terrifying than the Cyclone. In the other semi, the Blue Devils pitchfork the Bears. In the end though it’s a Hurricane on top two years in a row as Tulsa takes the fierce mascot bracket title.
Pros: Fun to think of mascots fighting.
Cons: Hasn’t been very effective. Finished last a year ago.
Pick Like a Complete Homer
Have a team you like? Send them to the title. Have a team you hate? Send them home early. In my case, this means good things for Kentucky, teams from Kentucky (except Louisville), Xavier (had they won their play-in) and teams from Southeastern Ohio (except Cincinnati) and Ohio State. It means bad things for Louisville, Cincinnati, Michigan, Florida, Tennessee, Arizona (for beating Kentucky in the 1997 Championship Game) and Connecticut (2011 Championship Game).
Since I used to work in college athletics there are also teams where I have friends on the athletics staff. Those teams get bumps too. This year, however, none of those teams made the tourney.
In a game where I am indifferent to both teams, higher seed wins.
With no friend teams getting in, this bracket was far less complicated than last year’s. Kentucky and Ohio State go to the Championship Game with Kentucky winning. Florida becomes the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 and Arizona becomes the second. In other words this is a train wreck.
Pros: Cathartic. Allows you to support your teams and add some extra loathing on the ones you hate. No rooting for teams you don’t like because “you have them in the pool.”
Cons: Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to…losing apparently. If you hate really good teams, you’re in trouble. This bracket beat only the mascots last year and that was without my two favorite teams — Kentucky and Xavier in the field at all.
Pick Who You Think Will Really Win
Otherwise known as thinking you know what you’re doing, this is for people who watch a lot of basketball and agonize over their brackets. Although this year there doesn’t seem like that much to agonize over. Sure you can pick an upset or two — my biggest are Stephen F Austin over VCU and North Dakota State over Oklahoma in the first round and New Mexico over a hobbled Kansas team in the second. I do have an odd Final Four, with Michigan State, Louisville and Creighton joining eventual champion Florida.
What I don’t have is Kentucky making a deep run. I hate it, but I just don’t see it. I know a lot of UK fans look at Wichita State and see a win, but Wichita is the EXACT team that Kentucky has struggled with. They are tough, physical, experienced, defend and play smart. Unless Kentucky has learned to deal with getting smacked in the face, I think this is trouble for them. The biggest issue is that they can’t just “play with” a good Wichita team. They have to BEAT a good Wichita team. They still haven’t shown that they can do that.
So between that and having Florida winning, I think I’ll go take another shower. I feel dirty.
Pros: You feel like you are actually working at something. If you do well, you can claim expert status.
Cons: If your team isn’t great and a tam you hate is, you feel like a traitor.
So that’s it for 2014. If you want to see how your bracket stacks up against science and insanity, feel free to join here. There’s no prize — certainly no $1 Billion, but you can trash talk me, which is almost as fun.