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Brackets Made Simple 3

March 20, 2014
Indiana Jones and the Lost Crusade

As far as sequels go, we’ll settle for Lost Crusade quality.

Sequels don’t always go well. Some are Godfather 2 and some are Major League 2 (which NEVER happened and will never be spoken of here again), so I prefer to refer to this as a gimmick as opposed to a sequel. Gimmicks last longer. Hell, Bill Engval has been giving out signs since I was in college (No, seriously, he has. I saw him live at the Funny Bone in an out-of-the-way strip mall in Montgomery, Ohio, about 25 years before the Blue Collar Comedy Tour. Same bit, except funnier because I’d never heard it before. Honestly, it was hysterical).

Choose poorly and somebody at your office may hand you a sign.

This can be a very stressful time of year. With all the bracket challenges out there — including one where you can win $1 BILLION — it can be overwhelming trying to fill yours out. Sure there’s the billion to be worried about, but since you have about the same chance of winning that as you have of winning the lottery while being mauled by a bear and struck by lightning at the same time, the bigger concern is the scorn of your friends, family and coworkers should your brackets fail. You only have a handful of hours left to get your brackets in and you’re feeling the pressure. We (meaning me) at meisterblogger  are here to help you once again.

Keep in mind, there are a TON of ways to fill out a bracket. We are going to stick to some that have some basic bracketing principles, ranging from nearly science to completely absurd. This leaves out things like favorite colors, because while mine is blue — or maybe green — yours could be red or orange, or if you are a woman, a shade of a color I have never heard of, like ecru or topaz or something.

We’ll start with five ways that approximate something like science:

The Wall Street Journal Blindfold Bracket

Wall Street Journal Blindfold Bracket

Blindfold Bracket

Unveiled a couple of years ago, the Wall Street Journal Blindfold Bracket has fast become one of my favorite parts of the Tournament season. Wall Street Journal staff assigns each team in the field a rating in each of six categories (offense, defense, rebounding, experience, 3-point shooting and hot streak) and without giving you team names, matches the teams up. You pick based on the rankings, theoretically giving you an unbiased look.

Yuri Gagarin

Come on, Wall Street Journal, if you’re going to name teams after jobs, you could at least give the favorites the coolest names — and not be Communists. What was wrong with Astronaut?

The first year we used this one, they gave all the teams awesome animal names, like wombats. Last year it was tools and utensils. This year, it was jobs — and not particularly glamorous ones. Only Cosmonaut and game show host stood out. Sadly, neither came out on top in my run.

When I ran through the group, Florida (which I think was the Piano Tuners if you want to cheat) won it all, but maybe a little surprisingly in a National Championship Game against Wichita State. Even in the early rounds there weren’t a ton of upsets, although I did end up with all four 12 seeds winning. The biggest surprise was New Mexico (7) making the Elite 8 and to a lesser extent Creighton (3) beating Arizona to make the Final Four.

Pros: Still fun and fair.

Cons: They appear to be running out of cool names for teams. The Blindfold Bracket did NOT fare well last year, finishing sixth out of eight efforts, including finishing behind flipping a coin.

Each of the past two years, we’ve given you the rundown of two major computer rankings. This year in addition to Kenpom and RPI we’re adding the made-for-ESPN BPI. We add the BPI primarily because we hope it will fail so we can mock ESPN for making up its own system and ramming it down our throats, much like they did with the QPR quarterback rating. Again, I have no idea what any of these measures other than strength of schedule, but Kenpom has the most complicated sounding category names. On to our three “mathy” systems.

Use the RPI Rankings

RPI Bracket

RPI Bracket

These are the rankings most used by the actual NCAA selection committee. They are considered gospel by some and derided by others, and while they don’t EXACTLY mirror the bracket seeds, they come pretty close. So you rarely end up with a true upset. Even with the RPI’s inclusion in the selection process, there are some teams that RPI thinks are mis-seeded. Three of them are piled on top of each other in the Midwest bracket. RPI has Kentucky underseeded at 8. Their RPI of 18 would have them as a 5. Kentucky’s first-round opponent Kansas State is one of the more overseeded teams in the tournament at 9 while their RPI of 50 would have them as a 12 (barely in the field). Then there is St. Louis, whose RPI of 31 would indicate an 8 seed instead of their 5. Maybe the committee just confused Kentucky and St. Louis. The biggest shock of the Midwest bracket is that according to RPI, Louisville — whose 4 seed was universally derided — is actually seeded a little BETTER than their RPI of 19 would indicate (5).

Other underseeded teams include New Mexico (RPI-12) which should be a 3 as opposed to a 7, North Dakota State (33) which would be a 9 as opposed to a 12, and a little surprisingly Gonzaga, whose 20 RPI ranking would have them as a 5 as opposed to an 8. The most overseeded team in the Tournament other than K-State is 1-seed Virginia who looks more like a 3 with an RPI of 9.

When you play the brackets out though, you get ZERO first-round upsets and only VCU gets to the Sweet 16 among teams seeded below 4. Duke is the only 3 seed that makes the Elite 8. And This year you end up with three No. 1 seeds — Florida, Arizona and Wichita State — and second seeded Villanova in the Final Four with Florida beating Arizona for the title.

Pros: Easy system to follow.

Cons: Not many upsets. Florida wins. Middle of the pack finisher the last two years.

Use the Kenpom Rankings

Kenpom Bracket

Kenpom Bracket

Kenpom is apparently the more advanced of the two older computer models and it’s touted by the same guys who love Sabermetrics  or whatever the newest thing is in baseball (think Moneyball on hardwood). Since it has nothing to do with the NCAA selection criteria, you end up with many more teams “out of seed” than you do with the RPI. The biggest difference is that Kenpom LOVES the Louisville Cardinals. According to Kenpom they should have been a top seed with their No. 2 ranking. Kenpom also has Kentucky, Oklahoma State and Gonzaga underseeded along with Tennessee (play-in game) and VCU (No. 13 Kenpom). It also has far more teams overseeded, including Oklahoma and St. Louis as well as Texas, Michigan and Iowa State. Kenpom would have No. 3 seed Iowa State as a 6. Tennessee by contrast (Kenpom 13) would be a 4.

Moneyball

Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill could sit around and talk about Andrew Harrison’s WAR — maybe, or they’re just actors. Whichever.

Kenpom allows for a few more upsets. VCU gets all the way to the Elite 8. Regardless of the winner of the Tennessee/Iowa play-in, that slot gets to the second round. However, you are down to the top seeds again by the Sweet 16, with VCU the only seed lower than 4 to get through the first weekend.

Kenpom does give you some excitement in the Tournament’s second weekend with Creighton beating Wisconsin, Duke beating Michigan and Louisville making the Final Four. And it diverges from the RPI with Arizona claiming the title.

Pros: Slightly more upset friendly. Was the second most effective bracket method a year ago.

Cons: Still not a lot of excitement.

Use the BPI

BPI Bracket

BPI Bracket

BPI or Basketball Power Index is ESPN’s in-house ranking system. Why they needed a new system, we’ll never know. Maybe they had run out of things for Skip Bayless to be wrong about and had to scramble. BPI points to a number of the same seeding issues as Kenpom — Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Louisville, St. Louis, but is the one rating that has New Mexico right where they are as 7 seed.

Like the other two sciency rankings, there isn’t much to work with upset-wise. The winner of the Iowa/Tennessee play-in beats UMass and 9 seed Oklahoma beats Gonzaga, but that is it. Duke is the only 3 seed to make the Elite 8 and all four 1 seeds reach the Final Four. Arizona again knocks off Florida in the title game.

Pros: You have math to back up your picks.

Cons: Like the other rating-based methods, not much excitement.

Pick the Higher Seeds

Higher Seeds Bracket

Higher Seeds Bracket

There’s no mystery here. You trust the Selection Committee — which many people do not — and pick the team they say is best. Florida wins over Arizona in the Championship Game thanks to the Selection Committee’s S-Curve.

Pros: Runaway winner last year, receiving 93% of possible points int he ESPN bracket challenge.

Cons: No fun at all and you feel dirty just doing it. Florida wins.

And that does it for ways that make any rational sense at all, which takes us to the ridiculous — some variation of which will undoubtedly win your office pool.

Toss a Coin

Coin Toss Bracket

Coin Toss Bracket

Two years ago, we sat and tossed an ACTUAL coin, but that stuff is for suckers. Last year we went to a virtual iCoin. It’s way easier on the table and it doesn’t wake up your family. Just like last year heads gave the game to the top team in the bracket and tails to the lower team.

This year our coin picked only 17 of the 32 higher seeded teams to win their games in the first round and picked only 25 higher seeded teams overall. In a world in which a No. 1 seed has NEVER lost to a 16 seed, the coin knocked off three of the four 1 seeds in the first round leaving only Arizona. The blood-letting continued through the rest of the bracket, giving me a Final Four of Stephen F. Austin (It’s a real school in Texas. Look it up.), George Washington, BYU and NC State, with George Washington knocking off NC State for the title.

Pros: No thought needed at all. The coin DID predict the two 15 over 2 wins in 2012. It was the best of the non-scientific brackets last year. Your results may vary.

Cons: It’s absurd and the teams most likely to win were already out before the games really got started on my sheet.

Choose by Mascot

Mascots Bracket

Mascots Bracket

This is probably my favorite option. There are a number of ways to do this, for example, you may own a bulldog, so you want Bulldogs to win. Also, while not exactly mascot oriented, when my younger son filled out his first ever bracket (at about 7 years old) he picked American (back in the field this year) to win it all, explaining “after all, we ARE all Americans.”

We aren’t doing either of those things. We go with “which mascot would win in a fight,” and we don’t mean a fight between their costumed characters (although we ALWAYS encourage those). We mean if their real world counterparts squared off. There are a few easy principles. Fierce warriors beat other humans and most animals. Wild animals fare pretty well. Pets fare less well than wild animals. Mythical/Supernatural creatures are evaluated on an individual basis and if they seem terrifying they win; Devils do well as a result. Natural disasters are unstoppable. In case of a mascot tie, higher seed wins.

Golden Hurricane

We don’t know what the difference between a Golden Hurricane and a regular one is. We just know we’re terrified of it.

The South bracket was no problem, as the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa powered through with ease, knocking off the New Mexico Lobos (most terrifying animal left after the Gators) in the Elite 8.

The East was close to as simple. The Iowa State Cyclones blew into the Final Four with a win over the Michigan State Spartans in the Elite 8. The most difficult match-up was in the first round between the Villanova Wildcats and the Milwaukee Panthers. In this case size does matter and the bigger cat wins.

The Midwest produces chaos. Even with Cal Poly (Mustangs) winning the play-in game over Texas Southern (Tigers), Cal Poly has enough to get past Shockers and Wildcats to make the Sweet 16. With North Carolina State winning their First Four game, though, the Mustangs get taken down by the Wolfpack. The Duke Blue Devils overcome the Wolfpack to get to the Final Four.

The West has the most fun matchups. In the first round alone a pair of Wildcats (Arizona and Weber State) face off (Arizona advances on seed). The Oklahoma Sooners take their toll on the North Dakota State Bison just like in settler days. We are giving the nod to the American Eagle over the Wisconsin Badger, mostly because of the flying thing. And we don’t care how Ragin’ a Cajun is, have you ever been dive bombed by a Bluejay? Those things are vicious. Bluejays romp. In the second round the fierce warrior Aztecs from San Diego State wipe out the Oklahoma Sooners and the Eagle quits soaring when the BYU Panthers get a hold of him. In the end Baylor comes out of the region to face Duke in the Final Four.

In that final weekend, the two disasters face off in one semifinal with Tulsa knocking out Iowa State. Hurricanes are bigger and I don’t know what Golden Hurricane is, but I don’t want to find out. It’s more terrifying than the Cyclone. In the other semi, the Blue Devils pitchfork the Bears. In the end though it’s a Hurricane on top two years in a row as Tulsa takes the fierce mascot bracket title.

Pros: Fun to think of mascots fighting.

Cons: Hasn’t been very effective. Finished last a year ago.

Pick Like a Complete Homer

Homer Bracket

Homer Bracket

Have a team you like? Send them to the title. Have a team you hate? Send them home early. In my case, this means good things for Kentucky, teams from Kentucky (except Louisville), Xavier (had they won their play-in) and teams from Southeastern Ohio (except Cincinnati) and Ohio State. It means bad things for Louisville, Cincinnati, Michigan, Florida, Tennessee, Arizona (for beating Kentucky in the 1997 Championship Game) and Connecticut (2011 Championship Game).

Since I used to work in college athletics there are also teams where I have friends on the athletics staff. Those teams get bumps too. This year, however, none of those teams made the tourney.

Wildcat and AShley

It’s good to be the Wildcat.

In a game where I am indifferent to both teams, higher seed wins.

With no friend teams getting in, this bracket was far less complicated than last year’s. Kentucky and Ohio State go to the Championship Game with Kentucky winning. Florida becomes the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 and Arizona becomes the second. In other words this is a train wreck.

Pros: Cathartic. Allows you to support your teams and add some extra loathing on the ones you hate. No rooting for teams you don’t like because “you have them in the pool.”

Cons: Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to…losing apparently. If you hate really good teams, you’re in trouble. This bracket beat only the mascots last year and that was without my two favorite teams — Kentucky and Xavier in the field at all.

Pick Who You Think Will Really Win

My Picks

My Picks

Otherwise known as thinking you know what you’re doing, this is for people who watch a lot of basketball and agonize over their brackets. Although this year there doesn’t seem like that much to agonize over. Sure you can pick an upset or two — my biggest are Stephen F Austin over VCU and North Dakota State over Oklahoma in the first round and New Mexico over a hobbled Kansas team in the second. I do have an odd Final Four, with Michigan State, Louisville and Creighton joining eventual champion Florida.

Benedict Arnold

Sometimes, when you try to pick with your head instead of your heart, you feel…less than loyal to the home team.

What I don’t have is Kentucky making a deep run. I hate it, but I just don’t see it. I know a lot of UK fans look at Wichita State and see a win, but Wichita is the EXACT team that Kentucky has struggled with. They are tough, physical, experienced, defend and play smart. Unless Kentucky has learned to deal with getting smacked in the face, I think this is trouble for them. The biggest issue is that they can’t just “play with” a good Wichita team. They have to BEAT a good Wichita team. They still haven’t shown that they can do that.

So between that and having Florida winning, I think I’ll go take another shower. I feel dirty.

Pros: You feel like you are actually working at something. If you do well, you can claim expert status.

Cons: If your team isn’t great and a tam you hate is, you feel like a traitor.

So that’s it for 2014. If you want to see how your bracket stacks up against science and insanity, feel free to join here. There’s no prize — certainly no $1 Billion, but you can trash talk me, which  is almost as fun.

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